Wednesday, 20 July 2016

US election: What would a Donald Trump presidency look like?


Mike Pence and Donald TrumpImage copyrightREUTERS

Donald Trump has been a very unorthodox Republican candidate since he descended that gold escalator to announce his candidacy last June.
He's staked out policy positions - on trade, immigration and even gay rights - that have run counter to long-standing Republican positions.
Now, however, he's the face of the party, and in many ways the party is bending to his will.
Here are five policy areas where Mr Trump has bucked the Republican line.
How has his influence on the party shaped that most tangible reflection of the party's views - the platform (manifesto) crafted here in Cleveland over the last week?
And what are the chances any of these proposals could see the light of day?


A man stops in front of the Stonewall Inn on June 24, 2016 in New York City.Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES

Gay rights

Where Trump stands: In the past Donald Trump has taken an accepting view of gay marriage. When musician Elton John wed his longtime partner, for instance, he tweeted: "If two people dig each other, they dig each other." During the campaign, however, he has asserted marriage should be between a man and a woman and states should not be forced to recognise same-sex couples.
He's expressed opposition to the North Carolina law that required transgender individuals to use bathroom facilities corresponding to their birth gender, however.
After the shootings at a gay nightclub in Orlando last month, Mr Trump directly appealed to gay voters, telling them he cared more about protecting them from anti-gay Islamic radicals than his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton.
Republican platform: The party is quite clear that it views "traditional" marriage between a man and a woman as "the foundation for free society", touching on it in two separate sections. It condemns the Supreme Court decision legalising gay marriage and asserts that "every child deserves a married mom and dad".
The platform also accuses Barack Obama of imposing "a social and cultural revolution upon the American people by wrongly redefining sex discrimination to include sexual orientation or other categories". It calls efforts to allow transgender individuals to access single-sex facilities of their choice "illegal" and "dangerous".
The rub: The Supreme Court has spoken, Democrats are drawing battle lines on LGBT rights and Mr Trump is apparently ambivalent. While the social conservatives have taken a firm stand in the platform - and they faced little opposition from Trump's team - they're likely fighting a losing battle.


A woman reads the Republican party platformImage copyrightREUTERS

National security

Where Trump stands: For Mr Trump, national security begins - continues and nearly ends - with a 2,000-plus mile impenetrable wall along the mountains, deserts and plains of the US border. He estimates the cost of the project to be $12bn (others put it at nearly twice that). Whatever the cost, Mr Trump says Mexico will pay for it - possibly through tariffs, visa fees and the threat of ending remissions from individuals in the US.
Mr Trump has also called for greater investment in the US military, saying it should be "funded beautifully". He has called into question US commitments to foreign alliances and mutual defence agreements, including with Nato and South Korea, saying that Americans are carrying too much of the financial burden.
Republican Platform: In past platforms, the party has called for a barrier along the US-Mexico border and increased funding for border security. Now, however, that's not enough. The wall "must cover the entirety of the southern border and must be sufficient to stop both vehicular and pedestrian traffic".
The party also dusts off its traditional call for increased military spending, offering Ronald Reagan's old slogan of "peace through strength". It calls into question arms limitation treaties and says that while the US must work within international alliances like Nato, Republicans "demand" that European nations invest more in their armed forces.
The rub: When it comes to boosting military spending, Mr Trump and the Republican establishment are singing from the same hymnal. The nominee's views on a border wall, however, are the previous Republican position on steroids. It's been labelled impractical and unaffordable by Democrats, who will fiercely resist the proposal.


A family talks with with relatives through the US - Mexico border fence in Playas de Tijuana, in Tijuana, northwestern Mexico, on July 2, 2016Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionA family talks with relatives through the US-Mexico border fence

Immigration

Where Trump stands: Mr Trump made international headlines last December when he called for temporarily closing the US border to all Muslims "until we can figure out what's going on". He's backed away from the position recently, however, saying it's merely a recommendation and the ban would only apply to nations with a "proven history of terrorism" against the US or its allies.
He launched his campaign by roundly condemning undocumented immigration from Mexico, accusing the nation of sending drug-dealers and rapists into the US.
He's also called for mass deportations of the 11 million undocumented immigrants currently living in the US, although he has made fewer mentions of that in recent days. He's taken a position against automatic citizenship for those born on US soil and said legal immigration should be reduced.
Republican Platform: The party offers a tip of the hat to legal immigrants, but warns that current levels of levels of immigration are contributing to US unemployment. The platform asserts that political, ethnic or religious refugees who cannot be "carefully vetted" should not be let into the country - "especially those whose homelands have been breeding grounds for terrorism".
The party takes a firm stance against any form of normalised status for undocumented immigrants and says illegal immigration "endangers everyone, exploits the taxpayers, and insults all who aspire to enter America legally".
The rub: Four years ago, many Republicans actively pressed for immigration reform, but the 2016 campaign trail is now littered with the political corpses of the pro-immigration candidates. Mr Trump clearly redefined the playing field for his party - and the November election will present voters with a sharp contrast with pro-immigration Democrats.


Image copyrightAFP

Trade

Where Trump stands: While the party platform's position on trade is a scant five paragraphs, Mr Trump routinely condemns what he sees as "unfair" trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). His website has an entire section just covering his proposed policy changes to US-China trade.
Mr Trump has said past trade deals were poorly negotiated, without protections for US workers and intellectual property - and that he would rework them to put US priorities first. He's called the TPP "the rape of our country" and suggested that US trading partners who are competing unfairly could face massive tariffs (an action that would almost certainly be penalised by the World Trade Organisation).
He has also said he would punish any US companies that moved their production facilities abroad to take advantage of lower prevailing wages.
Republican Platform: The party - a long-time proponent of free trade deals - tries to differentiate between "carefully negotiated trade deals" that create millions of US jobs and those that do not protect US interests or are not adequately enforced.
The party removed all references to the Trans-Pacific Partnership - a sharp difference from four years ago, when the platform called for its completion so the US could have greater access to Asian markets.
The platform condemns Chinese currency manipulation and says the nation subsidises its products to "thwart American imports".
The rub: Trade offers the best example of the revolution Mr Trump has wrought within the Republican ranks. Traditional conservatives - including many still in Congress - view free trade as an extension of their free-market worldview. Meanwhile, Mrs Clinton has backed away from past support for free-trade deals, as she confronts a rebellion within her party, as well.


File photo dated 17-06-2013 of Russian President Vladimir PutinImage copyrightPA

Foreign policy

Where Trump stands: Mr Trump has called US foreign policy "a complete and total disaster", saying that it has "no vision, no purpose, no direction and no strategy". His proposals alternate between a more robust pursuit of US interests on the international stage while avoiding costly engagements or entanglements.
He's condemned the US war in Iraq, Obama administration actions to overthrown the government in Libya and what he says is a hamstrung effort to fight the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. He's said that there will be "no daylight" between US and Israel and has pledged to reopen the "disastrous" nuclear-programme negotiations with Iran.
Mr Trump has spoken favourably about Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying the two would "get along very well". When he talks about relations with China, it is almost always within the context of trade and the economy.
He has said, above all, the US must be "unpredictable" with its foreign policy so that its adversaries will not be able to anticipate
Republican platform: The party says Donald Trump will not be bound by the recently concluded Iran deal, which it contends allows the nation to continue to sponsor terrorism and develop nuclear weapons. It calls for the destruction of the IS (sans specific details) and says unconditional support for Israel is "an expression of Americanism".
In the Asia-Pacific region, the platform says North Korean nuclear weapons programme must be irreversibly dismantled. It accuses the Obama administration of "emboldening" the Chinese government and explains that it is taking a harder stance toward the Chinese because its liberalising policies have been reversed as part of a "return to Maoism".
It condemns the "erosion of personal liberty and fundamental rights" in Russia, but says the US is "determined to maintain a friendship". The harsh condemnations of Russian involvement in Ukraine present in the 2012 platform were removed.
The platform also has a few kind words for Mexico, a perennial Trump punching bag: "Their rich cultural and religious heritage, shared by many millions of our fellow citizens, should foster greater understanding and co-operation between our countries."
The rub: Mr Trump's foreign policy has largely been a hodgepodge of positions, so it was somewhat unusual that his team took an active interest in watering down the platform's anti-Russian language. In other areas - where Mr Trump has expressed less direct interest - it's more traditional Republican tough talk.

Brexit: Theresa May says talks won't start in 2016


Media captionThe BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg asked the two leaders what they thought of each other during the press conference

Theresa May has said the UK will not begin official negotiations on leaving the EU this year as she held talks with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Speaking in Berlin, the PM said securing a "sensible and orderly departure" from the EU would take time.
But she insisted the UK would not "walk away" from Europe and wanted to retain the "closest economic links".
Mrs Merkel said the two sides desired to get the "best result for Britain" but urged more clarity on timing.
Earlier, a military guard of honour greeted Mrs May, who succeeded David Cameron a week ago.
At a joint press conference, Mrs May said the UK was in no rush to trigger the two-year process of leaving the EU - telling reporters that although "this would not please everyone" it was right to hold off until the UK's "objectives were clear".

'Special friend'


Media captionThe British and German leaders are pressed for details about migration levels and the timescale forBrexit in Berlin

The process of preparing the UK for Brexit would require "serious and detailed work" but, irrespective of this, she said the UK was determined to maintain strong trading, economic and security links with Germany, which she described as "a vital partner and special friend".
"Of course, the nature of our relationship is going to change as the UK leaves the EU, but we both want to maintain the closest possible economic relationship between our countries and I believe that is what German and British businesses want too," she said.
"So it's good that we start from such a strong foundation and a position where both our countries believe in liberal markets and free trade and these should be the principles that guide us in the discussions ahead."
Asked how they had got on at their first meeting, Mrs May said they were two women who want to "get on with the job and deliver the best possible results for the people of the UK and Germany".

Theresa May and Angela MerkelImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionUpon her arrival in Berlin, Mrs May was greeted by a guard of honour and a military band played God Save the Queen
Theresa May and Angela Merkel talking at the German ChancelleryImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionThe two had a working dinner before Mrs May heads to France on Thursday

Mrs Merkel said she did not expect there to be any formal negotiations at this stage and it was "understandable" the UK needed a period of time to prepare.
But she said there was a need for a "certain timeline" with regard to Britain's exit and hoped the UK would begin to "define its principles" with regard to the process of activating Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the official, legal mechanism for leaving.
"We have to listen to what Britain wants and find what the right answer is," she said. "Britain does not want an impasse, Germany does not want an impasse and the EU does not want an impasse".

Birthday gifts

The German chancellor said the two countries had "similar convictions and values" and she was determined to proceed in the "spirit of unity and friendship" that characterised Anglo-German relations.
BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said it was hard to believe that it was the first time that the two women had properly met as they seemed immediately at ease in each other's company and determined to build a personal relationship based on mutual trust.

Donald TuskImage copyrightREUTERS
Image captionDonald Tusk welcomed the UK's swift decision on the EC presidency, Number 10 said

But she said it was clear that Germany would hold the "balance of power" in the negotiations to come and although Mrs Merkel did want to make the UK's departure work, the UK's "leverage had really faded" following the decision to leave.
A Downing Street source said the government was "encouraged" by the tone of the talks and the subsequent working dinner in the German chancellery.
"There was a free flowing conversation in the bilateral talks and the dinner," the source said. "The two established a personal connection and relationship and the 'communication channels are now open'.
It has emerged that the UK prime minister presented two books on the British outdoors to her German counterpart as a birthday present, reflecting their shared interest in hiking.
The gifts for Mrs Merkel, who turned 62 on Sunday, were a new edition of Coast To Coast With Wainwright - a pictorial guide to illustrate Alfred Wainwright's walking route between northern England's west and east coasts - and a copy of Great Mountain Days In Snowdonia, which includes a guide to walks in the National Park.
Mrs Merkel often holidays in the South Tyrol region of northern Italy, while Mrs May is reported to enjoy hiking holidays in the Alps.

EU presidency

Mrs May is due to have talks with France's Francois Hollande on Thursday. Ahead of the visits - Mrs May's first overseas trips as prime minister - Downing Street announced the UK was to relinquish its upcoming six-month presidency of the Council of the EU.
The UK had been scheduled to take up the presidency of the Council of the EU - which rotates on a six-monthly basis between the 28 EU countries, giving each the opportunity to shape the agenda - in the second half of 2017.
But Mrs May has decided that Britain should skip its turn in the light of the Brexitvote in June's referendum.
Mrs May told European Council President Donald Tusk - in her first conversation with him as PM - it was "the right thing to do given we will be very busy with negotiations to leave the EU", a Downing Street spokesman said.
While the German and French leaders have said the UK's vote to leave must be respected, both are facing re-election next year and under domestic political pressure to drive a hard bargain.
They have suggested no special exceptions can be made for Britain in terms of continued access to the EU's single market if, as Mrs May has insisted, the UK seeks controls on freedom of movement rules.
The first time that Mrs May will face all 27 other EU leaders at the same time will be at October's European Council meeting.

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